In the early days of bridge, many experts regarded notrump as a “Plan B” bid, best used only after a partnership had investigated all suit contracts. That view has changed in the modern game, in part because responder now has Stayman, transfers and other ways to find trump fits.
Those methods have allowed pairs to take advantage of the other benefits of notrump openers. Besides making it more difficult for the opponents to overcall, 1NT is the only one-level opening that shows an exact three-point range. This makes it easy for responder to determine the level of the final contract.
Or so your bridge teacher probably told you. For simplicity, beginners are often taught to rely on arithmetic when responding with a balanced hand. The basic advice is to add your points to opener’s to determine if you have – or might have – the 25 points needed for game.
Is it 25 or 26 points?
With experience, we begin using more than just point-count to assess game prospects. We also learn that the 25-point target for bidding 3NT is too low for some types of hands, even when you have all suits stopped.
The 25-point guideline is already a reduction from the 26 points that Charles Goren and other experts once recommended for bidding 3NT, 4H or 4S with relatively flat hands. A combined 25 points will, however, give you nearly a 60-percent chance of making 3NT when your points are divided fairly evenly -- 13 and 12, 14-11, 15-10. When one hand is significantly stronger, however, the odds drop because of limited entries to the weaker hand.
One high-card point does make a difference. With 24 combined points, game is only a 40-percent proposition, even when your strength is divided equally. With 26 points, though, your success rate will be more than 70 percent for all point splits up to 20-6.
With those probabilities in mind, what’s your
call with this hand after partner opens a 15-17 1NT?
♠KJ5 ♥Q10
♦9754 ♣Q652
Point counters will invite with 2NT, since it’s possible you have 25 total points. As noted above, though, 17 opposite 8 doesn't rate to play as well as other combinations that add to 25.
The bigger problem is that your invitation may get you to game when you have only 24 points. Opener will bid 3NT with a good 16 (and some partners will accept with any 16). There’s another danger if your partner ever upgrades and opens 1NT with a strong 14. He’ll pass your 2NT, but with just 22 total points, he won’t be a favorite to take eight tricks.
The Rule of 25
Expert Danny Kleinman offers good advice with his “Rule of 25", which is based on the probable outcomes of these game contracts. It’s a three-part guideline that can help you decide whether to invite with borderline hands:
1 – If you know the partnership has at least 25 HCPs, insist on game.
2 – If you know the partnership has at most 25 HCPs, stop in a partscore.
3 – If you know the partnership may have either more OR less than 25 HCPs, invite game.
The advice is to invite when game is likely, not just possible. Over partner's 15-17 1NT, that means your best choice is usually to pass with a flat 8 points (you and partner have 23 to 25 points) and invite with 9 (24 to 26 points).
There are exceptions. An 8-point hand with a decent five-card suit ( ♠953 ♥A104 ♦KJ843 ♣52 ) or good 4-card majors ( ♠J1082 ♥A984 ♦62 ♣K54 ) is worth a stretch. You may also want to be a bit more aggressive in team play, where the odds favor bidding a vulnerable game that’s 40 percent or better.
If you were taught to invite with a balanced 8 or 9 points opposite a 15-17 1NT, consider bumping your range up to 8.5 (maybe 8.75?) to 9. Pass with less and don’t worry that opener might have a perfect maximum. In the long run, your extra plus scores will more than make up for missing a rare game.
© 2021 Karen Walker