Quick quiz:
A ball and a bat cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
This poser was sent by reader Gregory LaMothe, who uses it in his sales workshops. Most people in his audiences -- and perhaps you -- spontaneously answer that the ball costs a dime.
Of course, that’s incorrect. The ball costs a nickel. The question is so simple that the easiest, most obvious answer pops into our heads first. We come up with the correct solution only by doing the actual arithmetic.
Gregory points out that we make the same types of mistakes at the bridge table. These errors aren’t limited to impulsive bids based on hunches or emotions. They can also happen when we make reasoned bids, but fail to think through all the consequences.
Some of these lapses can be blamed on what psychologists call “inattentional blindness”, which is a natural tendency to miss important details because we aren’t looking for them. A similar theory is offered by Dr. Daniel Kahneman, an expert on the psychology of decision-making. He explains that our brains process information on two levels -- one driven by intuition and the other by logical reasoning -- and that we don’t always make best use of both.
Intuition, which Kahneman calls System 1, is dominant and functions first. It makes fast, automatic decisions, often based on experience and ingrained habits. It’s the instinct that tells you to always make a certain bid with a certain type of hand.
Reasoning (System 2) is slower and kicks in when System 1 doesn’t offer an easy answer -- or when we force ourselves to turn it on. It’s the more rational function that consciously looks for and analyzes clues, then makes logical conclusions.
If you used System 2 to solve the ball-and-bat problem, you may have been prompted by a suspicion that the dime answer was too easy. A similar reaction occurs when someone gives you a bidding problem. A quick answer might come to mind, but because the questioner found the hand interesting or difficult, you’re motivated to give it more thought.
The most successful players do that at the table. They test their first impulses by identifying alternatives and predicting how the auction might develop with each choice. Two good questions to ask are “What can go wrong?” and “Will I have a good rebid?” Try those with this problem:
Your RHO opens a weak 2D. What’s your call holding ♠AK87 ♥AKJ52 ♦2 ♣1093 ?
The System 1 choice for some is a takeout double. Others prefer a 2H overcall. With either call, the answer to the what-can-go-wrong question is that you could miss your better major-suit fit. The double hides the extra heart length and the overcall hides the spade suit.
Whichever call you choose, suppose your LHO will raise to 3D and partner will pass. You'll have enough to reopen, so your System 2 thinking at your first turn should cover the options for describing your majors if you have two opportunities to bid.
If you start with a double, your second call will have to be pass or double (your hand isn’t strong enough to double and then bid 3H). The second double shows some extra values, but it doesn’t guarantee more than three cards in either major.
If your first call is a 2H overcall, though, you improve your chances of finding your better fit. You can double when 3D is passed back to you and partner will know you’re at least 3-5 in the majors.
Your first instinct will often be right, but it can pay to think through other
possibilities. To make better bidding decisions, be objective, consciously turn
on your System 2 capabilities and, as Gregory cautions, try to avoid paying ten
cents for a ball.
© 2016 Karen Walker