Partner You
1S 2S
3NT ?
What’s your call at matchpoints holding ♠KJ5 ♥Q4 ♦K863 ♣8752 ?
Partner is offering a simple choice of games, but there’s a lot to think about. Passing 3NT has appeal because you have good high-card strength and, although your hand isn’t perfectly balanced, the doubleton has an honor. If both contracts offer the same number of tricks, the extra 10 points for notrump will be a big matchpoint score. 3NT could even be the safer contract.
The argument for bidding 4S is that your ruffing value might provide an extra trick and an extra 20 points. The opponents will probably lead either your doubleton suit or partner’s, and if you have only one stopper, 3NT could go down.
If those were the only factors to consider, you might call it a coin toss. For a tiebreaker, you need to broaden your focus. Try looking past your own cards and thinking about the contracts that will be reached at other tables. At some, 3NT won’t be an option because the auction will go 1S-2S-4S. At tables that duplicate your auction, most players holding your cards will probably choose 4S.
For close decisions, it’s often wise to go with the field’s choice. That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re settling for an average. In practice, making 4S will often score above average because there will be a few pairs who overbid or underbid. You may also pick up matchpoints if partner plays the hand better than other declarers.
These predictions will help you weigh the potential risks and rewards of both contracts. You might guess that playing the “anti-field” 3NT will be a near-top (perhaps 10 on a 12 top) if it outscores 4S, but a near-bottom (2 matchpoints) when it doesn’t. If 4S scores average-plus (7 matchpoints), choosing 3NT is risking five matchpoints to try to win three.
Estimating matchpoint scores will be more difficult in other types of auctions, so you may have to rely on assumptions about the field’s general tendencies. In club games and local sectionals, you may be familiar enough with the players’ bidding styles to make good guesses about their auctions. Will they open your hand, push to a close game, make an off-shape takeout double? You won’t always bid the same way, but it’s helpful to know what you’re up against.
It takes effort to think through all the possibilities, but developing an awareness of how your competition thinks can help you make better decisions. Some tips for acting on your conclusions:
Trust your judgment. “Play with the field” is good advice for many problems, but not all. If you reason that your bid is superior to the one the field will choose, go with it.
Take the field’s skill level into account. Players in a regional open pair will typically bid more aggressively and have more sophisticated systems than the pairs in your club games. A decent, but not laydown, grand slam that you would bid in an expert event may not be worth the risk in a weaker field.
Play the odds, not hunches. Recognize that most tops are the result of your opponents’ mistakes, not your gambles.
Don’t second-guess the field early in the auction. Avoid being creative when you have an “obvious” opening bid or
response. A flawed 15-count such as ♠J72 ♥QJ5
♦AKQ ♣Q654 might look
more like 13 points, but the field will be opening 1NT. If you downgrade and open 1C,
your evaluation may be technically superior, but it will be poor matchpoint strategy.
© 2016 Karen Walker