Offensive values – extra high-card points, extra trumps
A source of outside tricks – a long side suit, or extra trumps and ruffing values
Controls (aces, kings and singletons) in outside suits
Very important: Control of their suit (singleton, ace or sometimes Kx)
The 5-level belongs to the opponents. Be very slow to jeopardize the possible plus position you create when you push the opponents to the 5-level. If the decision is close whether to push on, double them, or pass -- then you should pass.
If you push on and go for too much, or it is a phantom, or you double them and they make it, you have a terrible result. If you double them and beat them one, you may have gained little or nothing. If you pass, in most cases the worst that will happen to you is that you break even.
This is almost analogous to a statement made by Daryl Royal: "If the (foot)ball is in the air, only three things can happen, and two of them are bad."
[Excerpted from "Rules of Bridge" by Grant Baze, published in 1985. The full article is here.]
Extra trumps – usually a fit of at least 10 trumps
Distributional values – a singleton in their suit (best) or other suits
Very few defensive tricks (keep in mind that queens and jacks in your shorter suits may be tricks on defense)
The expectation that you can take 10 tricks (red vs. white), 9 tricks (at equal vulnerability) or 8 tricks (white vs. red)
The strong expectation that the opponents will make their game contract.
If partner has preempted and you're deciding whether or not to sacrifice, estimate partner's playing strength by using the Rule of 2, 3 & 4. Assume partner will have the playing tricks to be within 2, 3 or 4 tricks of making his bid, depending on the vulnerability and that virtually all of his winners are in his trump suit. Here's a summary of how to apply the Rule of 2, 3 & 4:
Rule of 2, 3 & 4 |
|||
Your Side |
The Opponents |
Preempting conditions |
The level of your |
Not Vulnerable (white) |
Vulnerable (red) |
Excellent (Favorable) |
Rule of 4 |
Not Vulnerable |
Not Vulnerable |
Good (Equal) |
Rule of 3 |
Vulnerable |
Vulnerable |
Fair (Equal) |
Rule of 3 |
Vulnerable |
Not Vulnerable |
Poor (Unfavorable) |
Rule of 2 |
In practice, partner's preempt could be a bit light at favorable vulnerability (he may "stretch" the Rule of 4, especially in third seat). He'll tend to be more careful when vulnerable (he may not bid with a marginal Rule of 3 hand when both sides are vulnerable).
If partner opens or overcalls a weak two at:
Favorable vulnerability (white vs. red) – he’ll usually have 4 winners and 9 losers (sometimes 5 winners, 8 losers) (Rule of 4 to bid at the 8-trick level).
Equal vulnerability (white vs. white or red vs. red) – he'll have 5-6 winners and 7-8 losers (Rule of 3).
Unfavorable vulnerability (red vs. not) – he'll have 6 winners and 7 losers (Rule of 2).
If partner opens or overcalls a preemptive three-bid at:
Favorable vulnerability – he’ll have 5 winners and 8 losers (sometimes 6 winners, 7 losers) (Rule of 4 to bid at the 9-trick level).
Equal vulnerability – he'll have 6-7 winners and 6-7 losers (Rule of 3).
Unfavorable vulnerability – he'll have 7 winners and 6 losers (Rule of 2).
Count your tricks on offense. Add the number of high-card and playing tricks in your hand to your estimate of partner's playing tricks. Look at the vulnerability and decide if you can afford the penalty when the opponents double.
Count your tricks on defense. Estimate the number of defensive tricks you might take against the opponents’ contract. If partner opened or overcalled a Weak 2-bid, assume he'll take one defensive trick (perhaps two, depending on your length in his suit). If partner made a 3-bid, assume he'll take zero or one defensive trick.
If you have doubts about the success of the opponent's game contract or your sacrifice, pass.
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